March 3rd, 2023

“Education is the key to a better economy and a controlled population. Until now, the world blamed India for its huge population, but now it could envy it.” – Indian Singaporean economist Bikram Sen.

India
The regions within the Indian subcontinent have always possessed one of the largest concentrations of humans throughout history. The lands that make up modern-day India have always been rich in arable soil and natural resources that can support an immense population. Coupled with modern medical technology and its geographic bounty, India’s population has grown immensely in size and life expectancy from an average of 45 years of age in 1960 to 70 years in 2023. Just recently in 2023 India surpassed China to become the largest population in the world. India has always had to keep a steady balance with its population and the wide variety of ethnic groups that make it up. One question that many ask is whether India’s population will benefit or hinder its future as a rising power.

History

Since the Partition of India in 1947, Indian leaders have had to deal with the problem of casting off colonial shackles that left the populace uneducated and simply treated as laborers. Since 1947, India made significant gains in literacy, education, and technological advancements. Nearly 75% of India’s 1.4 billion people are literate, creating remarkable potential for economic and societal growth. India also invested heavily in education by establishing over 1,000 universities where only 20 universities existed under British rule, most reserved for the Indian elite. A large, educated population is helping India advance its economy and international position, and setting the stage for  a return to the Golden Age of academic India. 

Challenges

One challenge that accompanies  India’s population is the heterogeneous nature of its many ethnic groups. Granted, variation of India’s minorities creates a beautiful display of cultural diversity. It is estimated that there are an established 705 individual ethnic groups that makeup India’s population. The biggest problem associated with this diversity is the continual discrimination, prejudice, and xenophobia that exists daily throughout the cultural centers of India. The ethnic tension that exists within India has been put on global display in numerous terrorist attacks throughout the 21st century. If these ethnic tensions are not resolved,  India’s growing population could fuel further division and diminish India’s position on the world stage economically and politically because of internal unrest. 

Economic Impact

One of the most important things that must be considered with India’s growing population is the effect on the current and future state of the overall economy as well as individual financial situations. In 2023 India currently ranks as the 6th largest economy in the world trailing behind the UK but still nominally ahead of France and Italy. India’s main economic industries consist of agriculture, technology, and manufacturing. This result shows the potential that India still has to grow. It currently sits behind countries that have only a minuscule portion of its population and land size. An answer that addresses India’s current economic situation could be attributed to its dangerously low per capita income. Although India has a nominal GDP of $3.17T, it still struggles with its impoverished population. The annual income of the average Indian is only approximately ₹387,600, or $6,200 CAD. Widespread poverty that is present in India is what will hold it back from becoming an economic superpower akin to the United States or China. If India is able to uplift its massive population from poverty through beneficial economic reforms then the potential for Indian economic growth is exponential.

Sustainability
Another important factor when considering India’s future is the sustainability of its population. Much like its neighbor China, India’s population is entering the modern world of contraceptive technology and birth rates have begun to fall. If India is unable to maintain a strong birth rate then its future will be plagued with the weight of a massive senior population that could bring India’s economy and society to its knees. There is also the issue of mass emigration from India to western countries. India has the largest diaspora population in the world with more than 18 million people living in countries other than their nation of birth. This profuse exodus of Indians affects both the economy and diplomacy of India. On one hand, the emigration problem has created a brain drain within India where educated students are leaving India to pursue work in more developed countries which leaves India’s high-skill workforce vacant. On the other hand, the presence of Indians internationally has strengthened international ties with India. For example, the diplomatic and economic ties between India and Canada have grown considerably since the mass arrival of Indians on Canadian shores with Indians occupying many government roles throughout Canada’s leadership. The sustainability of India’s population is crucial for its future success and without it, India faces the same challenges as China and other aging countries like South Korea and Japan. 

In conclusion, India stands to grow exponentially from its current position on the world stage. If it is able to sustain its population and modernize its society and economy then it has the potential to rival China and the United States economically and politically. However, there are several threats that could nullify this growth, in particular, a lack of improvement to the average Indian’s financial situation as well as a declining birth rate that could lead to a cumbersome aging population. If India is able to reform effectively and uplift its current population’s financial situation then the possibilities of Indian expansion are boundless.

 

By Ethan Parkinson

Categories: Editorials